Strategic Planning for International Business-A Future Methods

Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future. This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.

This article documents the underlying principles of scenario planning considered best practice in its application. These principles have been learned directly over the past 15 years from the first-and second-generation pioneers of the scenario method. In this article, human resource development professionals wishing to gain expertise in the discipline of scenario planning will encounter a way of thinking about this work, Some key processes having a track record of success, and an outline of the knowledge skills they need to develop to become competent practitioners. The first part identifies a number of key phenomena that led to the birth of scenariobased strategy as a method. The second part describes some of the essential process elements, their origins, and the competencies needed for facilitation and execution. The goal of this article is to provide a set of reliable “handrails” for practitioners and guidelines for identifying useful further learning resources.