Forecasting areas and production of rice in India using ARIMA model

Data on rice area and production for the period 1950–51 to 2011–12 were analyzed by time series method. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model were used to forecast area and production in India for four leading years. The results also showed area forecast for the year 2015 to be about 44.75 thousand hectare with upper and lower limits 47.53 and 41.97 thousand hectares respectively. The model also showed rice production forecast for the year 2015 to be about 104.37 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limits 115.26 and 93.48 thousand tonnes respectively.