Structural changes in Indian tomato exports-a Markov chain approach

Tomato is an important vegetable crop of India which ranks second in area and production. India has its huge export potential both in fresh and processed forms. Tomato exports from India are confined to few countries. Hence it is essential to examine the direction of trade of tomato exports which pave the way for identifying the loyal market to be focused. Hence an attempt has been made in this view. Secondary data were collected for a period of 10 years from 2004–05 to 2013–14. Markov chain analysis was employed to study the direction of trade of Indian tomato. The transitional probability matrix revealed Pakistan as the loyal market. Further the projected value of exports also revealed that majority of the exports would be confined to neighbouring countries alone. Hence efforts are needed to improve the efficiency of production and quality in order to stabilize the markets and also to make the product acceptable and price competitive in European countries.