An assessment of relationship between exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic variables: A VECM approach

Emerging exchange rate volatility and the uncertainty in exchange rate markets have become issue of concern for all countries, but these issues are intractable substantially for developing countries. This paper analyses the relationship between exchange rate and gross domestic product, external debt, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate, money supply in India covering the period 2008–2018. This study utilized time-series Vector Error Correction Model approach of unit root test, co-integration test, residual test and granger casualty test. The findings indicated that external debt and interest rate influences the exchange rate as displayed by Granger casualty test. Subsequently, exchange rate influences external debt, interest rate and money supply as shown by Granger casualty test. Taking into account a long-term relationship, external debt, foreign exchange reserves and interest rate moves positively however, gross domestic product and money supply moves negatively with exchange rate volatility in India. Future researchers should try to cover longer duration of study of above 10 years with different variable like crude oil price, trade balance, and foreign institutional investment.