Supply response of selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria (1970–2010)

This study estimates export commodities supply in Nigeria from 1970 to 2010 in the context of co-integration and error correction modeling approach using data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the International Financial Statistics (IFS) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Results reveal that the error correction mechanism (ECM) shows that any disequibria away from the long-run steady-state equilibrium of export commodities is corrected within one year. Specifically, the speed at which export commodities supply adjusts to changes in crude oil price, exchange rate and real export price in an effort to achieve long-run static equilibrium is 55.2%. In the short-run, crude oil price has significant but negative effect on selected export commodities supply. However, in the long-run, the effect of crude price on export commodities supply is significant, negative and inelastic.