An analysis of India's foreign trade Post-Liberalization

One of the primary variables of an economy is Foreign Trade. Till recently, India was largely a primary goods exporting and industrial goods importing country. The trade barriers and investment restraints got on reducing after liberalization in India. In this paper, secondary data has been used to forecast the foreign trade of India by using an ARIMA model. Using a trade dataset aggregated at the all-India level for all sectors, post-liberalization periods were studied to examine whether India's exports showed growth. However, the magnitude of trade has grown with many cyclical as well as non-cyclical fluctuations. The model proposed in this paper incorporates all the fluctuations in the trade.