Identification of High-Risk Agro-Ecological Regions using Species Distribution Modeling of Priority Invasive Species in Sri Lanka

Mimosa pigra, Annona glabra, Lantana camara, Prosopis juliflora and Parthenium histerophorus are considered as priority invasive plants of Sri Lanka that cause considerable impact on agriculture and food security. The potential areas of these species are not available for land managers for timely control and management measures. This study modelled the suitable climate area for these invasive species under current climate scenarios using Maxent model. The resulting models were found to have good discrimination ability of presence and absence, with very high AUC values. The study identified highly responding variables for the model prediction of each species. Maxent predictions were overlaid on agro-ecological map of Sri Lanka and high-risk agro-ecological regions were identified for the five species considered. Resulting maps can be a vital tool for land managers to take information based decisions to control and manage invasive species.