A system dynamics model for predicting present and future demands in emergency department's green zone

The increasing number of patients each year visiting to the Green Zone in Emergency Department of Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (EDHUSM) requires a reasonable projection and proper planning of resources in order to meet the growing demand of the patients. Proper planning and the repercussions are required to be conducted for the present and the future in order to assist the management to improve the patients flow and services in Green Zone EDHUSM during weekdays, weekends and public holidays. Since the system in the Emergency Department is very complex, a computer simulation model is essential in order to understand the structure and behaviour of the system. Therefore, System Dynamics simulation is used to predict the number of patients that will visit and the resources required to match the demand and supply during weekdays, weekends and public holidays in the Green Zone at the present and for the future for the next five and ten years. The results show at the present, there are resources gaps of three doctors and three nurses on weekdays, while six doctors and six nurses on weekends as well as on public holidays. Therefore, adding new staff are really important in order to improve the patients flow in Green Zone EDHUSM and vital for achievement of the department's KPI. The result garnered from this research will assist the management to make a sound decision within their stipulated budget to improve the quality of services rendered and further enhance the performance of EDHUSM's Green Zone.