Forecasting production of automobiles in India using trend models

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the Linear Trend regression model, Holt's model and Winter's model and compare their forecast quality via the criteria of forecast as in Gilchrist using time's series data of the production of Indian Automobiles during 1996–97 to 2007–08. Forecasts using these methods are presented and comparison statistics and statistics of errors for the methods are examined. It is found that Winter's model forecasting produced better forecasts than the rest of the methods. In general, the winter's model always gives outstanding forecasts than the other methods, as seen on the comparison statistics and statistics of error.