Seasonality of exchange rates in Ghana

The seasonality of Ghanaian economic activities such as agriculture, consumption, money supply among others which affect exchange rate gives the impression that, the Cedi – US Dollar rate also follows a particular pattern within the year.

Using quarterly interbank Exchange rate data from 2000 to 2014, sourced from Bank of Ghana, this study has established the quarterly behaviour of the Cedi against the US Dollar. To achieve this, both statistical analysis and econometric model including trend, F – Test, K – Test and regression were computed with the aid of X-12 Census ARIMA program provided by the US Census Bureau.

Whiles the trend analysis suggest seasonal depreciation of the Cedi with peak in the fourth quarter, the regression results indicates statistically insignificant average mean difference between the quarters. However, the moving seasonality test showed a cyclical pattern of seasonal frequencies evolving from year to year. The general conclusion we established from the study is that depreciation of the Ghana cedi to the dollar follows a moving seasonality with a pattern constantly repeated year to year