Land use and land cover change and socioeconomic conditions nexus in the northwest highlands of Ethiopia: The case of wogera woreda

Land is the basic natural resource base, which provides space and raw materials for various life support services and developmental activities, therefore, it is under continuous change and dynamics where there is a complex interplay between natural and manmade interference in the biophysical environment. The objective of this research is, therefore, to investigate trends in land use and cover change and the nexus between land use and cover change, and socioeconomic conditions. For the study, digital image analysis was undertaken to produce two time series land use and cover maps of 1998 and 2012 to determine trends of changes while socio-economic survey was also done from 354 heads of households from three kebeles (Addisgie arabachan, Ayiba kidanemihret and Mereba) selected using clustered and simple random sampling technique (lottery method), respectively and analysis was done using descriptive (mean, frequency, %) and inferential statistical tools(chi-square test and multiple linear regression model) using SPSS version 16 to met the desired objectives. The data obtained from digital image processing and socioeconomic survey were used to investigate the trends of land use and cover change, and analyze its implications on socioeconomic conditions and the vice versa. The results of comparing land use and cover maps of 1998 and 2012 indicated that the area of forest decreased by 5.12% from 6.52% to 1.40% and the area of shrub land decreased by 22.24% from 24.88% to 2.64%. On the contrary, bare land increased by 2.24% from 15.35% to 17.59% and agricultural crop land increased by 25.12% from 53.25% to 78.37%. significant changes were observed through increasing agricultural area at the expense of forest and shrub land over time. From the socioeconomic survey and analysis through linear regression model, the major socioeconomic driving forces of land use and cover changes in the woreda identified were population growth, traditional agriculture, livestock population and sources of household energy consumption. This intern affected the livelihood of population living there almost at equal weight of 0.205 each. i.e. for every unit increase in each of the four factors above, there is an increase in LUCC (and so affects livelihood of the population) by 0.205 for each. Therefore, the relevant government office in the study area shall create conducive environment to increase forest and shrub land area cover, rehabilitate bare land through sustainable land management measures as well as introduce improved technologies in area of agriculture (cut and carry system, intensive small-scale farming, etc.) and energy saving technologies to reduce the burden of population growth on natural resources and sustainable agriculture.