Effect of Economic Factors on Fertility in Uttar Pradesh: A Regression Analysis

Fertility has always been compared with the socio-economic condition of people in almost every society. But, with the development of societies, high fertility became a challenge for the couples as upbringing of children incurred heavy costs. Studies suggest that the positive relationship between income and fertility is dependent on relative income (Easterlin, 1969 & 1973). The cost-benefit analysis of children suggests that the fertility decision of couples is based on the balance between advantage and disadvantage of an additional child (Leibenstein, 1953). Bongaarts (1978) had earlier talked about a set of ‘proximate determinants ’through which ‘modernization ’acts upon fertility levels. These proximate determinants include, for instance, deliberate fertility control, postpartum infecundability, waiting time to conception etc. among others. Easterlin has further added a set of ‘intervening variables ’between modernizations and ‘proximate variables ’.

In India, although child-births are declining, but level of total fertility is still on the higher side. The reasons for this decline may be attributed to change in age of marriage, mother's age at first birth, contraceptive usage, female's autonomy, breastfeeding practices etc. The present study determines the effect of various economic variables, suggested by Easterlin, viz., demand for children, supply of children and fertility regulation factors, on fertility behaviour among the females of Uttar Pradesh based on NFHS-1, NFHS-2 and NFHS-3 data. Efforts have been made to find out the most dominant factor which contributes the most towards fertility decline.