Temporal Behaviour of the Cereals in Nagpur District

Share of Agriculture & allied Sectors in total GVA (at current 2011–12 prices) in year 2014–15 has been 17.40 percent. The inflation rate of the cereals has been 3.6 percent in year 2014–15. The Foodgrain production of India is 253.16 million tons in year 2015–16(GoI, 2016). The cereals production in India was 231.6 million tons. The Foodgrains production in Maharashtra has been 11.47 million tons in year 2014–15(GoM, 2016), whereas the cereals production is 9.27 million tons in same year in Maharashtra. Foodgrains is our daily need. One can survive with other materialistic needs but without food, nobody can survive. Cereals are basic food of human being. The area, productivity and production of theses major cereal crops changes over the time. The production is function of productivity and area. If any crop shows good productivity, its area increases over the time. It can be said if area of any particular crop increases, it may be profitable and assured crop. So decomposition of the area and production data can throw light on various dimension and elements of the changes in economic upliftment of the farmer. With this intension, the present research work is taken. In this paper an attempt is made to find out the growth, instability and mutual effects over the time in Area, Productivity and Production of the cereal crops in Nagpur district. The objectives of the paper are 1)To estimate the growth rates of the Area, Productivity and Production for cereal crops in Nagpur district; 2)To study the instability in the Area, Productivity and Production of cereal crops in Nagpur district; 3) To find the effect of Area and Productivity on Production of the cereal crops in Nagpur district;

The data is collected from the Department of Agriculture, Government of Maharashtra on the area, productivity and production of the selected cereal crops for the period from the year 2000–2001 to 2014–15 on Rice, Maize, Kharif Sorghum, Rabi Sorghum, Wheat and Total Cereals. From the results, it is concluded that the growth in the area, productivity and production of Rice, Wheat and Total Cereals are positive, whereas growth is negative in the area, productivity and production of Maize and Kharif Sorghum. The growth in area of Rabi Sorghum is negative and in Productivity, it is positive. The area, productivity and production have been instable during the selected 15 years ranges from 7 to 24 percent. The past acreage of the cereal crops has contributed positively in current years’ production.