Out-Migration from Tikamgarh District: Some Statistical Results on Patterns and Determinants

Bundelkhand region has been facing severe drought problems from last decade (since 2007). A Zone which was previleged for Agriculture and food security has now become a symbol of insecurity and migration due to adverse climatic conditions. Migration is continuously increasing in recent years because of famine (rainfall deficit) in the region. Keeping this fact in view a detailed study was conducted in Tikamgarh district to determine the patterns and determinants of out-migration from the district. The study suggests that category-wise higher migration rate was found in ST, followed by SC, OBC and General. On the basis of landholding sizes highest migration rate was found in marginal farmers followed by landless labourers. Out of total land holdings in the district, 70% farmers come under small and marginal class. On the basis of age group highest migration rate was found in 25–29 age group followed by 30–34. Migration in the lower age group (<15 and 15–19) was associated migration with their families. In all the determinants of migration, rainfall is the most important one who forced people to migrate. Binary logistic regression analysis technique is used to find out the statistical significance of the factors (Category, landholding size, irrigation, age, livestock, economic index and number of recent and remote past prior number of migrant) to the process of migration. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results (χ2 = 7.586, 8 d.f., P = 0.475) suggest that the proposed model is a reasonable approximation to the situation under consideration.