Time Series Analysis of Wind Energy Generation

Green energy is the term used to describe sources of energy that are environmentally friendly and non polluting. One such energy is the wind energy. Electricity is generated from this energy through wind mills. In this paper forecasting of electricity generation is done up to December 2010.First, ARIMA model was introduced by Box and Jenkins in 1976. Kihoro, J.M deals with comparative study of seasonal ARIMA models in 2004. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is used to discover the pattern and predict the future values to the data related to wind energy generation in Tamilnadu. After testing with various models SARIMA (2,1,2)(0,1,1)12 was fitted and found to be a good forecasting model for this particular problem. Finally validity of the model was tested using statistical techniques.