1Department of Mathematics, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal, India, E-mail: rashminigam75@gmail.com
2Civil Engineering Department, Acropolis Institute of Technology and Research, Bhopal
3Department of Mathematics, MANIT, Bhopal, India
4Civil Engineering Department, MANIT, Bhopal, India
Flood has emerged as a serious problem in the recent years affecting material and human resources. The present work focuses to simulate flood episode in Kulfo catchment area of the Ethiopia, which is still under geographical modification with hilly topography and impervious soil texture. The modeling results will add to develop flood management strategies to reduce disaster. The complexicity of natural hydrological phenomenon and dependent random variables are expressed considering it as stochastic process. Flood (maximum river flow) forecasting on the Kulfo River with monthly runoff data using stochastic TRANSFER FUNCTION (TF) time series models is done. The analysis of seasonally varying time series of discharge data has revealed that a Bi-variate TF model has produced excellent results for three to six months forecast compared to higher order ARIMA models.
Rainfall-Runoff, Forecasting, Stochastic, Transfer function, Simulation, Modeling
