1Assistant Professor, Department of Business Management, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004, Haryana
2Professor, Department of Business Management, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004, Haryana
3Assistant Professor, Department of Business Management, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004, Haryana
4Research Scholar, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, Haryana
*Corresponding author email id: subodh.agarwal47@gmail.com
Online published on 17 February, 2022.
An attempt has been made in this paper to analyze the trend and forecast of Agricultural Export in India. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model by Box and Jenkins (1976) is used for the purpose. This method uses historical data of univariate time series to analyze its own trend and forecast future cycle. It was found that estimated values of Agricultural export during 2016-17 to 2018-19 were closed to the actual values as percent deviation of the estimated and observed figures were ranging between -2 to -4 and forecasted figures lie within confidence limits based on ARIMA models for the three consecutive years ahead 2019-20,2020-21 and 2021-22.
ARIMA, Trend, Forecast, Agricultural export, Box and Jenkins
