Crop Growth Trend Analysis of Uttar Pradesh: An Overview

The twenty-first century began with a new promise for the future of agriculture in the new millennia. Beginning from the year 2000, agricultural scenario of the state of Uttar Pradesh was poised to make a major growth trend. An analysis of the growth in area, production and yield of common crops of Uttar Pradesh was therefore taken up covering a period of seventeen years. Based on the exponential growth rate function, it was found that cereal production has registered a positive trend, while pulses had a negative trend in all three aspects, area, production and productivity. The growth rate for the major food grains has receded in area, but production and productivity improved. Coefficient of variability was computed to establish the magnitude of variation, which allowed comparing the production trend with crop performance. Modelling the production trend with respect to the contribution of area and productivity showed that overall contribution towards growth in production was favourable. Significant growth together with increased variability indicated lesser risks associated with production. Effect of yield towards production was prominent in crops like small millets, jowar, bajra, barley, potato and wheat. Contribution of area was predominant in maize, bajra, wheat and rice while defining the production trend.