Three Decades of Change: Correlation Between Drought Severity and Camel Population Trajectories in Ethiopia (1995/96–2021/22 G.C.)

This study investigates the intersection of dromedary population dynamics and drought intensity in Ethiopia across a 27-year longitudinal timeframe (1995/96-2021/22). By aggregating longitudinal data from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and various secondary academic sources, we analysed the correlation between herd fluctuations and historical moisture stress cycles. The findings indicate an unprecedented 700% increase of the national camel herd, which grew from a baseline of 1 million to 8.12 million animals. Although brief population dips were noted in 2009 and 2013, the species demonstrated rapid geometric recovery. A significant demographic skew was observed, with females comprising the majority of the population a result of the selective market off-take of males for the meat trade. Analysis confirms a robust positive correlation between drought severity and population growth. While ruminants suffered 40–60% mortality during extreme shocks (e.g., 2011/12), dromedary populations remained stable. This shift, termed camelisation, represents a deliberate adaptation by herders to utilise the camel as a climate resilient insurance asset. To maximise this strategic resource, we propose a four pillar framework that prioritises technological integration through solar powered cold chain systems for milk value chains, alongside a shift toward veterinary specialisation focused on dromedary specific pathologies. Furthermore, this approach advocates for enhanced financial support by providing credit facilities for species-based herd diversification and emphasises robust environmental governance to protect traditional migratory grazing corridors through formal land use planning.