From Divergence to Convergence? A Comparative Analysis of Demographic Transition in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh: Evidence from NFHS-4 and NFHS-5

This paper examines whether the demographic differences between Kerala and Uttar Pradesh are gradually reducing by comparing changes between NFHS-4 (2015–16) and NFHS-5 (2019–21). The study focuses on two important indicators of population change: the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). It also looks at the major social and economic factors behind these changes, such as female education, economic inequality, access to healthcare services, institutional delivery, and the use of family planning methods.

The findings show that Kerala has already reached an advanced stage of demographic transition. Fertility remains below the replacement level (TFR 1.8), infant mortality is very low (IMR 4), female literacy is almost universal (98.3 percent), and institutional deliveries are nearly universal (above 99 percent). On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh still has fertility slightly above the replacement level (TFR 2.4), but it has made strong progress in recent years. Infant mortality has declined significantly from 64 to 50, institutional delivery has increased from 67 percent to 83 percent, and full immunization coverage has improved from 51 percent to 76 percent. These changes show improvements in healthcare services and maternal and child health programs.

The analysis suggests that the gap between Kerala and Uttar Pradesh is slowly reducing, especially in terms of child survival and mortality. However, fertility levels are changing more slowly in Uttar Pradesh because differences in education, economic conditions, and gender norms still influence family size decisions. The study concludes that demographic transition in India continues to vary across regions. Kerala is now facing new challenges related to an aging population, while Uttar Pradesh still has a young population and the potential to benefit from a demographic dividend. Future convergence between the two states will depend on continued investment in education, better healthcare access, gender equality, and stronger public institutions.