Growth, stationarity and structural breaks of some macroeconomic variables: A study of independent India

Division is the sole force that attaches dynamism in Economics. Experts refuse to follow any common macramé to understand economies and, hence, differ in policies to be adopted. However, to a good extent, it depends on performance of the economy and related facts. This paper is an attempt to search for such facts using appropriate methodology. In other words, an attempt has been made here to check the stationarity and breaks, if any, and to assess the growth of some important macroeconomic variables. Breaks, to some extent, signify structural changes. In our study, we have adopted methodologies that endogenously determine breaks in the model itself. In other words, the methodologies used by us for identifying breaks allow the time series data identify the breaks without pre-setting the break dates. The macroeconomic variables considered for this purpose are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its different components, like Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Private Final Consumption, Government Final Consumption, Export and Import. Different sectors, like Agriculture, Manufacturing and Service, are also considered along with price and some monetary variables. Per-capita gross domestic product has also been considered. Period of study is 1952–1953 to 2013–2014. However, for Public Sector GDP, period is 1960–1961 to 2012–2013. Time series data used here are at constant 2004–2005 prices.