Professor of Economics,
The objective of this study is to analyse the short run and long run impacts of COVID-19 induced shutdown on industrial growth in India. It quantifies the short term effect on growth across different industries and analyses whether the recessionary effect of the shock will be long lasting or short living. The study examines the stochastic behaviour and nature of trend of the monthly time series of iip from different sectors by considering possible structural break in the series. The study observes that manufacturing is the worst affected sector because of lockdown registering average rate of fall in production at around 43 per cent. But all manufacturing groups have not been affected equally. Production of motor vehicles declined at the fastest rate (more than 76 per cent) during this period. Capital goods sector was the bad performer exhibiting negative growth even before the COVID 19 outbreak and declined by more than 65 percent during the pandemic. During lockdown, production of consumer durable goods declined at the highest rate as compared to the other sectors in use base category in industrial production
Recession, Macroeconomic outlook, Pandemic
