Reliability Analysis of Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Central Plain Region of Punjab

Weather and climatic information plays a major role before and during the cropping season and if provided in advance can be helpful in inspiring the farmers to organize and activate their own resources in order to reap the benefits. In India, direct application of computerized information systems to the farmers is not feasible in the present conditions. Therefore, India Meteorological Department (IMD), the only nodal agency in India issues biweekly forecast to the different centers to prepare agro-advisories for the benefit of farmers. Medium range weather forecasting of different weather parameters viz., rainfall, temperature and cloud cover during seven-year period (April 2000 to March 2007) for Ludhiana station were verified and their reliability and utility were assessed for two years (2004–06) for Ludhiana region. In the farm activities the accuracy for rainfall is about 80 per cent except during SW monsoon season (69.0%). For rainfall, the ratio score (RS) ranged between 58 to 96 per cent and Hanssen and Kuipers (HK) score was 0.12 to 0.54. Per cent mean values of accuracy for rainfall, cloud cover, maximum and minimum temperature were 80.9, 49.8, 54.4 and 47.1, respectively. The utility of the medium range weather forecast indicated 5 to 7 per cent economic benefit in rice, wheat, mustard and maize in central plain agroclimatic zone of Punjab.