Mapping the growth trajectory of Indian dairy exports and imports

Indian dairy industry is one of the largest and fast growing industries which contribute significantly to the national economy. The global dairy market has undergone significant structural changes in recent times, particularly concerning milk production. But even though India is the world's largest milk producer, it only managed to capture one per cent of global dairy trade. Under this backdrop, the study was undertaken with the objectives to determine the growth of export/import of dairy products from 2001-2022 and calculate competitiveness of India's dairy products in the world market. The study is based on secondary data. The structural change in import and export of Indian dairy products was examined by Chow test and for direction of trade Gauss Markov Chain analysis was applied. The results of study showed that there was structural change in import/export of Indian dairy products in year 2013. After that data have witnessed a remarkable growth in export of dairy products and decline in import as a consequence of Intensive Dairy Development Programme initiated by Government of India. The result of direction of trade showed Bangladesh, Egypt and other countries are the loyal importers and USA, New Zealand and other countries are the loyal exporters of Indian dairy products throughout the study period. Study recommends that to enhance the production and global trade of dairy products, additional efforts should be directed towards the implementation of dairy development programs.