Export of maize from India: A markov analysis

Maize (Zea mays) production has been increased from 9.99 million MT to 28.75 million MT and average productivity increased by 1.82 times from1676 kg/ha to 3065 kg/ha during the period (1992-93 to 2017-18). Regarding export performance, it shows a wide number of fluctuations and having a negligible contribution in the global market. Therefore, present study was undertaken to study the export scenario of Indian maize and trade direction among different trading countries by using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Markov Chain Analysis. For this purpose, the secondary data has been collected from year 199293 to 2018-19 from official website of APEDA. The results of CAGR showed that positive and highly significant growth rate was observed in term of both the quantity as well as value of exported maize with the rate of 32.74 and 38.60 per cent per annum. During the study period it perceived wide number of oscillations in export performance depending upon the domestic demand supply gap and international price variations. The result of Markov analysis revealed that Nepal and Malaysia were the most stable importer of the Indian maize with probability of retention of 84.95 and 53.70 per cent, respectively. The Estimation of projected share for Indian maize export suggested increasing trade with Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia up to the year 2022-23. Thus, the study suggested increasing domestic output of maize crop for the promotion of trade in global market and engaged with more loyal countries for trading.