Climate change impact on hydro-climatic fluxes in kantamal catchment of the middle Mahanadi river Basin, India

Climate change is now considered as a newly added threat for natural resource management, which has significant impact on agriculture and allied sectors. Climate change studies play a pivotal role in developing sustainable natural resource management strategies. The present study assesses the effect of climate change on hydro-climatic fluxes in Kantamal catchment of the Mahanadi River basin, India. Utilizing the modified Mann-Kendall test, analysis of long-term climatic variables revealed a decreasing trend in rainfall and increasing trend in temperature. Employing a bias-corrected, multi-model ensemble of three regional climate models (RegCM4-4, RCA4, REMO2009) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, a rise in the average maximum temperature of 0.86°C under RCP4.5 and 1.16°C under RCP8.5, as well as an increase in the average minimum temperature of 2.35°C under RCP4.5 and 2.89°C under RCP8.5, by 2099 were projected. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 29.53% (RCP4.5) and 24.34% (RCP8.5), with surface runoff decreasing by 13.91% (RCP4.5) and 9.94% (RCP8.5), actual evapotranspiration declining by 7.81% (RCP4.5) and 7.77% (RCP8.5), soil moisture reducing by 11.17% (RCP4.5) and 9.69% (RCP8.5), and water yield is projected to decline by 39.45% (RCP4.5) and 33.05% (RCP8.5) as compared to the baseline period. Water stress situation is anticipated in the catchment emphasizing the need for planning and management of water resources, and sustainable agriculture.