Annual, seasonal and monthly projected changes in meteorological parameters under rcp based emission scenarios at Ludhiana (Punjab)

A study was conducted using CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model to analyze the changes in meteorological parameters under four RCP scenarios during the 21^st century at Ludhiana. The maximum temperature is predicted to increase from baseline (1970–2015) by 0.5 -1.0^oC during mid-century (2020–2049) and by 1.2 - 2.4^oC during end century (2066–2095) and the minimum temperature by 1.8 - 2.4^oC during mid-century and by 2.0 - 5.3^oC during end century. Projected annual rainfall decreased and its coefficient of variation (CV) increased (>300%) indicating increased erraticity. Solar radiation is predicted to decrease by nearly 4–6%. The CVs for temperature and radiation during winter season are high Indicating increased cloudiness with frequent heat/cold wave spells. Though cold wave spell may be favourable but the cloudy weather is not conducive for wheat. The monsoon season rainfall is projected to decrease during June, August and September. The rainfall for October is projected to increase which may hamper harvesting of kharif season crops.