Climate Change and its Effects on Prices of Vegetables in Tamil Nadu

This study examines the impact of climate factors on vegetable prices, a key aspect influencing agricultural production decisions. As climate change increasingly disrupts weather patterns, understanding the relationship between climate variables and vegetable price fluctuations becomes essential for shaping agricultural policies, market predictions, and supply chain management. Using the ARIMAX model, this research analyzes the effects of temperature and rainfall on the prices of four major vegetables viz. tomato, onion, brinjal, and okra in Tamil Nadu from 2005 to 2019. The findings reveal that tomato and onion prices are significantly affected by climate conditions, while brinjal and okra prices show minimal sensitivity to weather variations. Additionally, the study employs the ARIMA model to forecast vegetable prices for 2020-2029, identifying optimal forecasting models for each vegetable based on the lowest AIC and BIC values. The forecast indicates substantial price fluctuations over the next decade, providing valuable insights for farmers to optimize crop planning and marketing strategies.