Agricultural Research Journal

The global scientific community is increasingly recognizing the urgent need to address the complex challenges facing the agricultural sector, particularly those arising from significant shifts in climatic conditions. In India, the rising demand for horticultural crops, both domestically and internationally, has compelled farmers to focus on producing high-value crops, particularly fruits and vegetables, in a cost-effective manner. This demand, coupled with the relatively shorter production cycles, potential for crop diversification, more efficient land use, and opportunities for integrating advanced technologies, has led to a growing preference among farmers for horticultural production over traditional staple food crops. This paper aims to analyze the multifaceted impact of climate change on food security and to assess its long-term effects on the production of horticultural crops in India. To achieve this, the study utilizes climatic and agricultural data from the 15 leading horticultural-producing states of India, spanning the period from 1987-88 to 2020-21. A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to examine the long-term effects of climate change on horticultural production. Keeping in view the regional variability in geographic, climatic, and socio-economic conditions, the ARDL model is particularly suited to capture heterogeneity by incorporating multiple cross-sectional units. The factors influencing horticultural crop production are categorized into climate-related and non-climate-related variables. The results indicate that, in the long run, climate variables exhibit a significantly negative relationship with horticultural production, suggesting an unfavourable impact. In contrast, non-climatic factors such as the area under cultivation and the annual average wage rate are positively correlated with horticultural production and have a significant effect. Overall, the study concludes that, in the long term, climate change exerts a more substantial influence on horticultural crop production than other factors. This finding highlights the critical need for the adoption of climateresilient technologies in horticultural farming to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and ensure sustainable production.