1College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China
2College of Foreign Languages, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China
3Department of Public Accounting, Ministry of Finance and Economics, Antananarivo, 101, Madagascar
*Corresponding Author: Tan Qijia, College of Foreign Languages, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China, Email: tanqijia.ctgu@outlook.com
The sustainability of cereal-based agricultural systems in developing countries is threatened by climate change and resource degradation, particularly increasing water stress. Despite the agronomic benefits of legumes, their integration into cereal systems remains limited due to a lack of macroeconomic evidence on the risks of cereal reliance under hydrological pressure.
This study employs a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework to analyze the interaction between cereal yield and water stress across 45 Sub-Saharan African nations from 2004 to 2024. Data were sourced from the World Bank and FAO databases. A fixed effects panel model was used to assess the effects of cereal intensification and water stress on agricultural efficiency, with subgroup analysis by climate zone.
While cereal yield supports food production (β = 1.175), its positive effect is significantly negated under high water stress, with a pronounced negative interaction (β = -3.531). This vulnerability is most acute in Semi-Arid regions, where the interaction coefficient reaches -18.78. The findings demonstrate that water stress critically undermines cereal-focused systems and highlight the urgent need for diversification through drought-tolerant legume integration to enhance resilience and water-use efficiency.
Cereals, Pressure-state-response, Sustainability, Water stress
