Structural Change Analysis of Honey Export Markets of India: Markov Chain Approach

The purpose of this study was to use the Markov chain to predict future honey exports to importing destinations, and analyze honey exports from India to various major import markets. Secondary data, the yearly export of honey from India to other countries were collected from 2013 to 2023.

The results showed that the USA, UAE, and Qatar were stable destinations for Indian honey. At the same time, other importing countries, like Morocco, were unstable (had low retention probabilities) in their export share to these markets. The most unstable importing countries were Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Bangladesh. The predicted export shares of honey to major importing countries revealed that the export share of Indian honey is expected to be highest in the USA and UAE over the next four years.