Studies on the role and reliability of weather factors on the incidence of sapota bud borer, Anarsia achrasella (Vill.)

The forecasting model to predict A. achrasella incidence was developed at Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore, India, by using weather factors identified by simple correlation analysis. The studies clearly showed that preceding week's weather variables viz., minimum temperature, evaporation and wind speed were found to be important predictors of bud borer incidence. Further, as a measure of goodness-of-fit, the coefficient of determination (R²), mean squared error (MSE) and variance inflation factor (VIF) were used to evaluate the developed empirical models. Validation test showed that the model developed using wind speed and evaporation (Y=−16.4+3.26X_{6 (wind speed)}+2.29X_{7 (Evaporation)}) predicted borer incidence reasonably well based on R²value and minimum average prediction errors. This model can be used for decision making in IPM, but future validation is needed to improve its predictive ability.