Influence of weather factors on the incidence of fruit flies in chilli (Capsicum annuum L.) and their prediction model

Seasonal incidence and population fluctuation of fruit flies on chilli (Capsicum annuum L.) ecosystem in Mizoram, India revealed that there were four distinct peaks during last week of March (115.33), second week of April (204.67), second week of May (384.00) and first week of June (126.00). The studies clearly showed that minimum temperature (r = - 0.546*) was found to be an important predictor of fruit fly catches, while the maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and rainy days had non-significant correlation with trap catches of fruit flies. Further, as a measure of goodness-of-fit, the coefficient of determination (R₂) was used to evaluate the developed empirical models. The abiotic factors jointly had a highly significant impact on population of fruit flies. Validation test showed that the model developed using minimum and maximum temperature, Y= -52.13 - 46 (X₁) + 39 (X₂) (X₁, minimum temperature, X₂, maximum temperature) predicted fruit flies catches reasonably well based on R₂ value (55%). This model can be used for decision making in IPM, but future validation is needed to improve its predictive ability. The present investigation on the fruit flies catches from methyl eugenol traps are new records for India on this chilli ecosystem. The major fruit fly species groups were caught from methyl eugenol trap in chilli ecosystem was Bactrocera dorsalis group.