A review on the innovation diffusion models from 1960–2010 with their application on dram industry

The cases of Television sets generations(LCD, LED), computer generations and many more, the penetration of such products in their target market follows a nonlinear trend with time. It can be seen as function of set of numerous variables affecting price, time, placement and publicity. The modelling of diffusion of innovations has remained the hot topic for market researchers since 1960’s when Fourt and Woodlock(1960) gave their very first, primitive market research tool on the volume of consumer purchases per year. Bass model has been considered as the most basic model which was later modified to include several other factors in the basic model. In this paper different cases of models have also been considered which includes diffusion of single innovation in a market, multiple market and diffusion across generations. Different type of S-shaped functions have also been mentioned keeping into consideration the S-shaped nature of the cumulative adoption function of an innovation. Four different S-shaped functions which includes Gompertz model, Log-logistic function and Generalized bass model have been used to find the best fit curve in the case of DRAM industry. Generalized Bass model has been found to be the best among the other models with high R-squared values across all the generations of the DRAM products.