Impact of the devaluation policy on macroeconomic indicators

The article analyzes the influence of the devaluation instrument on the country's macroeconomic indicators over the last 20 years of economic development. Analyses of recent years show that the effectiveness of the devaluation policy tool on macroeconomics is not justified by the desired results, as evidenced by the low elasticity of exports in relation to the real effective exchange rate. There are number of practical and methodological problems in determining the level of devaluation and its effectiveness. Solving this problem objectively requires improving the practical and methodological foundations for using the devaluation tool at the macro level.

The main goal of this study is to improve the methodological aspects of the devaluation instrument and its impact on macroeconomic indicators

The methodology of the research is based on the analysis of the impact of the devaluation instrument on the country's macroeconomic indicators. During the analysis, a number of statistical methods were used, such as grouping, comparison, arithmetic mean (variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, etc.), as well as Marshall-Lerner conditions in determining the elasticity of exports and imports. The analysis includes long-term (five-year) and short-term (annual) lags.

Based on the results of the study, a new approach to determining the level of devaluation of the national currency was proposed and its forecast parameters for the medium-term prospect (2017–2021) were developed.

Replace the practical approach to conducting a devaluation policy from a "continuously progressive" character to an "intermittent-regressive" one. In other words, the devaluation should be based on the matrix or the concept of aggregate factor instruments such as GDP, inflation, unemployment, real income, consumption, savings, investment, exports and imports, etc.