Comparative study of Linear Trend Regression, Holt and Winter Models, with Application to Production of Indian Automobiles

There are a number of methods available to study time-series data. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the Linear Trend Regression, Holt and Winter Models and compare their forecast quality by using times series data of the production of Indian Automobiles during 1996–97 to 2007–08. Forecasts using these methods are presented and Comparison Statistics and Statistics of Errors for the methods were examined. It is found that Winter's Model Forecasting produced better results than the rest of the methods, as seen on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).