Sources of growth and instability in cassava production in Nigeria: An evidence from Hazell's Decomposition Model

Evaluation of trends in production of major staple food crops in Nigeria became imperative so as to assess and address the way in which policies affecting agriculture are implemented. The study empirically analysed the growth and instability in cassava production in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015 using exponential growth model, Coppock's instability index and Hazell's decomposition. Data for the analysis was sourced from FAO, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and National Agricultural Extension Research Liaison Services (NAERLS). The findings of the study reveal a positive growth rate of 4.15% of cassava production during the overall period of study. Growth in productivity was found negative in period I and III ostensibly due to reduction in agricultural labour and high cost of inputs as result of policy shift towards crude oil production and deregulation policy of the economy. Instability was generally low during the periods of the study, indicating the level of impact of technological advancement. Sources of instability from Decomposition analysis were mainly as a result of change in mean area and change in area variance. The study recommends a revisit of the policies and their implementation and role of institutions in technology dissemination with a view to increase in cassava yield rather than expansion of area under cultivation.