Weather Based Pre-harvest Forecasting of Rice at Kolhapur (Maharashtra)

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to farmers, distributors, government agencies and other users and are needed for policy decisions. In present study pre harvest forecast models for different weeks after sowing (14^th Wk to 20^th Wk) were developed using weather indices based on varied weather parameters (1985–2009) for estimating rice productivity in district Kolhapur (Maharashtra). Multiple linear regression (MLR) technique was used and the cross-validation of the developed forecast models were tested for their accuracy using the data of year 2010 and 2011. Out of developed seven forecasting models 18^th Wk model showed maximum R² and minimum RMSE. The 18^th Wk forecast model accounts for 89% of variation in yield with RMSE 107. On the basis of selected weather indices in the model, the rice yield was validated for year 2010 and 11 with -4.9 and 3.6% variation respectively.