Changing precipitation pattern, and its impact on surface water resources, is an important climatic problem facing society today. Associated withglobal warming, there is strong indication that rainfall changes are already taking place on both the global and regional scales. The pattern and amount of rainfall are among the most important factors that affect agricultural systems. To assess the change in future climate, projections from different resources are used for decision making, which is normally considered uncertain. Uncertainties in these projections have to be analysed for better understanding and decision making. In the present study uncertainty in rainfall projection was studied through ensemble technique. The five-member ensemble projects a high variation for winter monsoon than other seasons. Typically GFDL-ESM2G projected an increase in rainfall for all the time slices in all the seasons studied. Both the monsoons was projected to increase by most of the models, in that North east monsoon was projected to have an increase higher in magnitude than that of South west monsoon.
Ensemble, Seasons, North East Monsoon, SRES, RCP and Crop production.
