A Study on Growth and Direction of Black Pepper Trade in India-A Markov Chain Approach

India is the second largest producer of black pepper in the world production. The export of black pepper in India has increased from 74 crores in 1991–92 to 878 crores in 2011–12. Compound growth rate (CGR) was used for analyzing the growth in black pepper area, production, yield, export quantity, unit value and export value over the years. The results indicated that the growth rate of area, production, productivity and unit value were found higher during pre-liberalization period than post-liberalization oroverall period due to the stiff competition from different black pepper, producing countries, which lead to decline in the growth rate. The Markov chain analysis revealed that the major Indian black pepper export markets, were categorized as stable market (USA, Germany, UK, Italy, Canada and other category) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The data regarding country-wise export of black pepper has showed that the previousexport share retention for Indian black pepper has been high in minor importing countries (pooled under others category) (85%), followed by USA (78%), Germany (41%), Italy (33%), Canada (16%) and UK (11%). The increasing share of other countries clearly showed that the need to explore and exploit the market potential of other countries. Efforts are also needed to improve the efficiency of production to make the product acceptable and price competitive in other importing countries.