Critics and supporters of the latest invasion of Iraq often misplace it in its historical context. An analysis of all three Gulf Wars reveals that the current situation is the culmination of a struggle for regional and global power, which began with the Islamic revolution in Iran. This article shows how American interference has helped weak states survive, prevented the rise of regional great powers and caused regional instability. Two scenarii for a change in the Gulf are presented. In the first, the United States (US) cooperates with Iraq and/or Saudi Arabia, giving rise to regional hegemons that function as American proxies. In the second, the US withdraws completely. Considering the disadvantages of both strategies, the US is most likely to continue its balancing policy, which neither solves the current problems nor offers a perspective for regional stability.
