The heady Arab spring of 2011 has been succeeded by a summer of violence and uncertainty. There are conflicting interpretations of the meaning, nature and results of the revolutions. This article proposes a reading of the changes taking place in the middle East and North Africa based on a macro historical theory and envisions four possible outcomes. There is a danger that the insurrections, after weakening the nation-states, will revive tribal and sectarian divisions, as in Iraq. Political revolution must find fulfilment in an economic transformation and a social emancipation through a cultural renaissance according to the author,
