South Korea’s tripartite defence alliance with the US and Japan has been the bedrock of its security for over half a century. Now however, the trilateralism has been put on trial as the Republic of Korea has become so heavily dependent on trade with China that its security interests and economic needs seem set on a collision course. There has been growing awareness of this dilemma on the conservative side of South Korea’s political divide, but the ruling Democratic Party and its affiliates remain in broad denial of the problem. For President Moon Jae-In to acknowledge the China threat would be to endorse the only available solution-a more robust “minilateralism” with Washington, Tokyo and possibly Taipei as well. This would be hard to achieve after the pandemic inspired triumph of Moon’s camp in the April 2020parliamentary elections, but there are signs of a shift in the making.
