(Erosion Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Integrating Methods and Techniques (Proceedings of Symposium HS01 held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo, July 2003), IAHS Publication No. 279, 2003, pp. 131–144).
This paper proposes a method of evaluating model reliability based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique, and applies it to distributed rainfall-sediment-runoff models with different complexity in the rainfall-runoff processes. The proposed evaluation method indicates that the model dealing with subsurface flow and surface flow is the most reliable among the three models for the Lesti River basin, for which hourly rainfall discharge sequences are available. By using the evaluated rainfall-runoff process models, sediment erosion and transportation in the Lesti River basin are simulated.
Distributed rainfall-sediment-runoff model, Model reliability, Monte Carlo simulation, Optimum model complexity
