52. Updating Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using a Fuzzy Rule-Based Model

Flood forecasting is an important non-structural means of flood mitigation. An updating technique is a tool to update the forecasts of mathematical flood forecasting model based on data observed in real time, and is an important element in a flood forecasting model. An error prediction model based on a fuzzy rule-based method was proposed as the updating technique in this work to improve one-to four-hour-ahead flood forecasts by a model that is composed of the grey rainfall model, the grey rainfall-runoff model and the modified Muskingum flow routing model. The coefficient of efficiency with respect to a benchmark is applied to test the applicability of the proposed fuzzy rule-based method. The analysis reveals hat the fuzzy rule-based method can improve flood forecasts one to four hours ahead. The proposed updating technique can mitigate the problem of the phase lag in forecast hydrographs, and especially in forecast hydrographs with longer lead times.