Tendencies, probabilities and risk analysis for dams

Recent developments in risk analysis for dams have introduced some new, interesting and useful points of view to understand the existing relationships between a great number of factors which may dam safety. Some questions do however still arise with regard to laws often introduced in the analysis to describe the probability distribution of any single variable or parameter. The definition of a new special notion called ‘tendency function’ – as a base for creating a special series of probability laws- appears to disclose some interesting points of view, and opens up a more realistic way to assess the safety of dams, while inviting mathematicians and engineers to investigate in-depth this important but quite complex subject. The scope of the analysis is to disclose the probability distributions which best fit the physical reality of all he factors influencing dam safety. It will also address concerns related to the ‘tails of the probability distributions’. An algorithm is presented to develop a new series of probability distribution laws. Although this new development is presented, there is still a good deal of work to be carried out on the practical use of its results when assessing dam safety.