We report progress on a novel effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. The framework comprises five iterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Wile the scenario framework can be applied to most water resource applications, we place particular emphasis on semiarid environments and forces not typically considered in the traditional water management process such as unforeseen changes in government institutions, or second-order effects of climate change on environmental systems. The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various water management strategies. In addition, scenarios can consider the possible effects of external drivers, such as changes in political institutions, or large-scale environmental change that may be especially important in developing countries.
