One of the most important activities related to water resources management consists of finding suitable development strategies for a given river basin. In this paper an exploratory modelling technique will be used instead of the standard scenario approach to assess the robustness of a proposed strategy. Preliminary tests of this technique in the Korsch River basin in Germany suggested that this approach poses many advantages if it is compared with the scenario approach, namely: (1) one can “stress test” a strategy and assess its Inherent risk of failure; and (2) one can find events or parameter values under which a good strategy may fail.
Exploratory modeliing, Risk, Risk based strategic planning, Uncertainty
