(Proceedings of Symposium S7 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, April 2005. IAHS Publication 303, 2006, pp. 145)
A method to identify hydrological prediction uncertainties is proposed through recognizing and quantifying different uncertainty sources in hydrological modelling. Based on this methodology, an index which originates from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure, named the Model Structure Indiating Index (MSII) is developed to quantify model structure uncertainty. The results of hydrological model comparisons show that the MSII can reflect the goodness of a hydrological model structure well. The index can be used as a tool for implementing quantitative comparison and selection of models.
