Improvement Needed for Accurate Wind Generation Forecasting - Wind Generation Forecasting in Present Era

Renewable energy (RE), mainly wind generation, plays the great role due to its variable, intermittent and uncertain characteristics. Such vague characteristic of wind energy are impact on conventional generation operation, grid parameter and system operation.

Now, State is having certain key issues with wind generation variation due to its Must run status, less availability of cheaper gas generation, negligible quantum of hydro generation, non-availability of balancing system, stringent provisions of Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM) regulation, also absence of Intra-State RE framework as on today etc. Hence, the behaviour of power system operation for the State can be identified by the real time case study of quantity impact of renewable generation from wind and solar in the State.

To deal with challenging nature of wind generation and ever-increasing wind energy penetration and to overcome its impacts, it is utmost necessary to manage or balance the power system by accommodate of wind energy with predefine solution mechanism. The realistic forecast is one of the vital tool, which can pre-requisite for reliable grid operation and planning for resources management. Many renowned agencies worldwide are providing the services for Wind Generation Forecasting (WGF). However, the result/output of each Forecasting Service Provider (FSP) vary due to quality, quantity and utilization of various static, variable data and weather data. Gujarat has completed pilot project with five FSPs for various site. Then after, activities of wind generation forecasting for State as a whole are being carried out with some of different FSPs and Institute. Gujarat, SLDC has also developed in house methodology of wind generation forecasting. However, accuracy are being represented by various formula i.e. deviation with forecast capacity, available capacity, MAPE, NRMSE etc. Hence, quantity of actual deviation of wind generation are challenging to decide by such various accuracy formula. All the data in the paper are indicative and possibility to varies. Hence, the study is based on data availability for understanding the system operation with renewable energy integration purpose only.

This paper are addressing the requirement of accurate and full-fledged wind generation forecasting mechanism as per data availability and weather scenario of India and, also block wise accuracy criteria for stable, reliable and secure grid operation.